Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Arka Gdynia
Oct 10, 2026 - 13:30
1.42 1.18
Polonia Warszawa
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Arka Gdynia opened at -0.25 against Polonia Warszawa in the I Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Arka Gdynia -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Arka Gdynia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Polonia Warszawa than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Polonia Warszawa +0.25
@ 2.60
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.96
Price Advantage
+32.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.38 -0.25 1.88 / 2.38 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.98 / 2.57 -0.25 1.99 / 2.60 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.38 -0.25 1.90 / 2.38 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.47 -0.25 1.93 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.91 / 2.47 -0.25 1.91 / 2.47 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
xG 1.42 / 1.18 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Arka Gdynia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.04
Arka Gdynia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.04
Market price is 7.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.40 10.00
-2.00 7.70 10.00
-1.75 5.24 7.30
-1.50 4.10 5.65
-1.25 3.72 5.25
-1.00 3.28 4.80
-0.75 2.52 3.34
-0.25 1.90 2.38
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.46 1.76
+0.75 1.24 1.41
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.25 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 6.00
-1.25 3.80 5.75
-1.00 3.45 5.25
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.16 1.30
+1.25 1.14 1.25
+1.50 1.12 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 2.47
0 1.62 2.11
+0.25 1.46 1.77

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.47
+0.25 1.50 1.82

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 7.70 9.30
-1.75 5.25 7.30
-1.50 4.10 5.65
-1.25 3.72 5.25
-1.00 3.28 4.80
-0.75 2.52 3.34
-0.25 1.88 2.38
0 1.63 2.08
+0.25 1.46 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.41
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.25 1.09 1.20
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+1.75 1.03 1.09

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 3.72
-0.50 2.29 2.97
-0.25 1.99 2.60
0 1.68 2.21
+0.25 1.51 1.85
+0.50 1.39 1.64
+0.75 1.27 1.47
Primary Bets
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