Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pogoń Siedlce
Sep 06, 2026 - 17:00 PST
1.17 1.43
Puszcza Niepołomice
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
0
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 7 books · 71% agreement · Strong
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pogoń Siedlce opened at -0.25 against Puszcza Niepołomice in the I Liga. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Puszcza Niepołomice from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
Pogoń Siedlce +0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pogoń Siedlce 0
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Puszcza Niepołomice than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Puszcza Niepołomice 0
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+4.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.52 / 1.84 0 1.98 / 1.71 0 +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.71 / 1.94 0 2.08 / 1.79 0 +0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.55 / 1.84 0 1.98 / 1.71 0 +0.25
Betano -0.25 2.57 / 1.91 -0.25 2.57 / 1.91 — 0
Superbet -0.50 2.95 / 2.20 -0.50 2.95 / 2.20 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.59 / 1.88 0 1.97 / 1.72 0 +0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
xG 1.17 / 1.43 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Closing consensus
Market Odds
2.08
Pogoń Siedlce @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.39
Pogoń Siedlce @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.08 vs 2.39
Market price is 13.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 6.05
-1.50 5.70 4.70
-1.25 5.25 4.26
-1.00 4.80 3.82
-0.75 3.28 2.78
-0.25 2.33 1.99
0 1.98 1.71
+0.25 1.66 1.51
+0.75 1.34 1.25
+1.00 1.18 1.12
+1.25 1.15 1.09
+1.50 1.12 1.08
+1.75 1.06 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.00 5.00
-1.25 5.75 4.40
-1.00 5.25 3.90
-0.75 3.45 2.85
-0.50 2.75 2.38
-0.25 2.38 2.08
0 2.05 1.75
+0.25 1.72 1.55
+0.50 1.55 1.42
+0.75 1.40 1.30
+1.00 1.24 1.16
+1.25 1.20 1.14
+1.50 1.17 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.71 2.37
-0.25 2.34 2.05
0 1.97 1.72
+0.25 1.66 1.51
+0.50 1.50 1.39

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.57 1.91
+0.25 1.82 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 6.05
-1.50 5.70 4.70
-1.25 5.25 4.25
-1.00 4.80 3.82
-0.75 3.28 2.78
-0.25 2.30 1.99
0 1.98 1.71
+0.25 1.66 1.49
+0.75 1.34 1.25
+1.00 1.18 1.12
+1.25 1.15 1.09
+1.50 1.12 1.08
+1.75 1.06 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.32 4.27
-0.75 3.62 3.06
-0.50 2.88 2.50
-0.25 2.48 2.15
0 2.08 1.79
+0.25 1.73 1.56
+0.50 1.55 1.43
+0.75 1.38 1.29
+1.00 1.23 1.17

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.20 4.35
-0.50 2.95 2.20
+0.50 1.60 1.35
+1.50 1.18 1.09
Primary Bets
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