Stranraer vs Edinburgh City Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Stranraer
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.42 1.18
Edinburgh City
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Stranraer opened at -0.25 against Edinburgh City in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Stranraer -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Stranraer -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Edinburgh City than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Edinburgh City +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.96
Price Advantage
+40.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.59 -0.25 1.74 / 2.59 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.59 -0.25 1.76 / 2.59 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 2.67 -0.25 1.78 / 2.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
xG 1.42 / 1.18 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Stranraer @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.04
Stranraer @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 2.04
Market price is 14.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 7.90
-1.50 3.50 6.10
-1.25 3.20 5.69
-1.00 2.83 5.30
-0.75 2.28 3.68
-0.25 1.76 2.59
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.91
+0.75 1.20 1.50
+1.00 1.09 1.33
+1.25 1.08 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.40
-1.25 3.30 6.00
-1.00 2.85 5.75
-0.75 2.35 3.80
-0.50 2.05 3.10
-0.25 1.80 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 2.00
+0.50 1.35 1.75
+0.75 1.25 1.58
+1.00 1.14 1.40
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.12 1.27

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 2.67
+0.25 1.44 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 7.90
-1.50 3.50 6.10
-1.25 3.20 5.70
-1.00 2.83 5.30
-0.75 2.28 3.68
-0.25 1.74 2.59
0 1.52 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.89
+0.75 1.20 1.50
+1.00 1.09 1.33
+1.25 1.08 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.22
+1.75 1.02 1.13
Primary Bets
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