Dumbarton vs Forfar Athletic Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dumbarton
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.17 1.43
Forfar Athletic
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dumbarton opened at -0.25 against Forfar Athletic in the League Two. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
Dumbarton +0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Dumbarton -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.48
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.48 AH points more toward Forfar Athletic than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Forfar Athletic +0.25
@ 2.42
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.48
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+56.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.90 / 2.35 -0.25 1.90 / 2.35 — 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 1.70 / 2.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.92 / 2.35 -0.25 1.92 / 2.35 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.40 -0.25 1.98 / 2.40 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
xG 1.17 / 1.43 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Dumbarton @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.82
Dumbarton @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 2.82
Market price is 32.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.30 7.10
-1.50 4.15 5.50
-1.25 3.78 5.10
-1.00 3.34 4.70
-0.75 2.56 3.28
-0.25 1.92 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.74
+0.75 1.25 1.40
+1.00 1.12 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+1.75 1.04 1.09

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.75
-1.25 3.80 5.25
-1.00 3.45 4.65
-0.75 2.68 3.45
-0.50 2.25 2.75
-0.25 2.00 2.42
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.52 1.80
+0.50 1.42 1.62
+0.75 1.30 1.45
+1.00 1.18 1.30
+1.25 1.16 1.25
+1.50 1.14 1.21

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.98 2.40
+0.25 1.53 1.78

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.30 7.10
-1.50 4.15 5.50
-1.25 3.78 5.10
-1.00 3.34 4.70
-0.75 2.56 3.28
-0.25 1.90 2.35
0 1.65 2.05
+0.25 1.47 1.73
+0.75 1.25 1.40
+1.00 1.12 1.24
+1.25 1.10 1.19
+1.50 1.08 1.16
+1.75 1.04 1.09
Primary Bets
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