Newcastle vs Aston Villa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Newcastle
Oct 17, 2026 - 16:30
1.61 1.14
Aston Villa
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Newcastle opened at -0.25 against Aston Villa in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.43
Newcastle -0.43

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Newcastle -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Newcastle than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Aston Villa +0.25
@ 2.86
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.23
Price Advantage
+28.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.80 / 2.70 -0.25 1.80 / 2.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.85 -0.25 1.88 / 2.86 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.70 -0.25 1.89 / 2.70 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.15 / 3.05 -0.50 2.15 / 3.05 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 2.01 / 3.00 -0.50 2.01 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.43
xG 1.61 / 1.14 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Newcastle @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.82
Newcastle @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 1.82
Market price is 3.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.42 7.70
-1.50 3.50 6.05
-1.25 3.23 5.66
-1.00 2.89 5.35
-0.75 2.33 3.70
-0.25 1.89 2.70
0 1.63 2.49
+0.25 1.43 2.05
+0.75 1.23 1.55
+1.00 1.12 1.36
+1.25 1.09 1.30
+1.50 1.08 1.24
+1.75 1.03 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.60
-1.25 3.30 6.00
-1.00 3.00 5.75
-0.75 2.35 3.90
-0.50 2.05 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 2.02
+0.50 1.35 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.58
+1.00 1.14 1.38
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.11 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.01 3.00
-0.25 1.77 2.66
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.90
+0.50 1.32 1.69

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.15 3.05
+0.50 1.40 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.40 7.70
-1.50 3.50 6.05
-1.25 3.22 5.70
-1.00 2.89 5.35
-0.75 2.33 3.72
-0.25 1.80 2.70
0 1.58 2.42
+0.25 1.43 1.95
+0.75 1.24 1.55
+1.00 1.12 1.36
+1.25 1.10 1.29
+1.50 1.08 1.24
+1.75 1.03 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.50 4.08
-0.50 2.15 3.24
-0.25 1.88 2.86
0 1.61 2.46
+0.25 1.47 2.02
+0.50 1.37 1.78
+0.75 1.27 1.58
Primary Bets
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