Hull City vs Everton Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hull City
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
1.25 1.27
Everton
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hull City opened at -0.25 against Everton in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Hull City -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Everton than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Hull City -0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.40
Price Advantage
+26.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.04 / 1.73 -0.25 3.04 / 1.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.71 / 1.52 0 2.75 / 1.50 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.80 -0.25 3.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet 0 2.74 / 1.54 0 2.74 / 1.54 — 0
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.83 -0.25 3.15 / 1.78 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.96 / 1.71 -0.25 2.98 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
xG 1.25 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.04
Hull City @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.40
Hull City @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.04 vs 2.40
Market price is 26.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.20 3.75
-1.25 7.90 3.32
-1.00 7.30 2.99
-0.75 4.60 2.29
-0.25 3.41 1.73
0 2.74 1.54
+0.25 2.04 1.38
+0.75 1.55 1.16
+1.00 1.34 1.06
+1.25 1.26 1.05
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.80 3.10
-0.75 4.40 2.38
-0.50 3.45 2.05
-0.25 3.00 1.80
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.50 1.75 1.30
+0.75 1.55 1.20
+1.00 1.35 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.35 1.97
-0.25 2.98 1.70
0 2.53 1.44
+0.25 1.99 1.33
+0.50 1.72 1.26

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.60 2.07
-0.25 3.15 1.78
+0.25 2.07 1.39
+0.50 1.80 1.31

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.20 3.75
-1.25 7.80 3.34
-1.00 7.30 2.99
-0.75 4.60 2.30
-0.25 3.04 1.73
0 2.66 1.49
+0.25 2.04 1.35
+0.75 1.56 1.16
+1.00 1.34 1.06
+1.25 1.27 1.04
+1.50 1.21 1.03

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.87 2.42
-0.50 3.75 2.08
-0.25 3.25 1.78
0 2.75 1.50
+0.25 2.14 1.37
+0.50 1.84 1.30
+0.75 1.62 1.21
Primary Bets
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