Coventry vs Newcastle Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Coventry
Oct 12, 2026 - 19:00
1.57 1.01
Newcastle
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Coventry opened at -0.25 against Newcastle in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.51
Coventry -0.51

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Coventry -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.26
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.26 AH points more toward Coventry than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Coventry -0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.26
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+75.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.78 / 1.80 -0.25 2.78 / 1.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.05 / 1.83 -0.25 3.05 / 1.83 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.78 -0.25 2.85 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.93 / 1.80 -0.25 2.93 / 1.80 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.85 / 1.85 -0.25 2.85 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.50 3.10 / 1.99 -0.50 3.10 / 1.99 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.51
xG 1.57 / 1.01 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.05
Coventry @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.74
Coventry @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.05 vs 1.74
Market price is 75.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 15.50 7.20
-2.00 14.50 6.50
-1.75 8.85 4.57
-1.50 6.55 3.66
-1.25 6.23 3.26
-1.00 5.80 2.94
-0.75 3.92 2.36
-0.25 2.93 1.80
0 2.52 1.62
+0.25 1.95 1.48
+0.75 1.52 1.22
+1.00 1.35 1.10
+1.25 1.27 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.06
+1.75 1.13 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.55
-1.25 6.40 3.30
-1.00 5.90 2.85
-0.75 4.00 2.30
-0.50 3.30 2.05
-0.25 2.85 1.78
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 2.02 1.40
+0.50 1.80 1.32
+0.75 1.60 1.23
+1.00 1.40 1.13
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.27 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 1.99
-0.25 2.73 1.74
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.93 1.38
+0.50 1.70 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.25 2.12
-0.25 2.85 1.85
+0.25 2.00 1.45
+0.50 1.75 1.37

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 4.60
-1.50 6.55 3.66
-1.25 6.20 3.28
-1.00 5.80 2.94
-0.75 3.92 2.38
-0.25 2.78 1.80
0 2.44 1.57
+0.25 1.95 1.41
+0.75 1.53 1.22
+1.00 1.35 1.10
+1.25 1.28 1.08
+1.50 1.22 1.06
+1.75 1.14 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.44 2.42
-0.50 3.48 2.10
-0.25 3.05 1.83
0 2.61 1.55
+0.25 2.09 1.42
+0.50 1.81 1.34
+0.75 1.61 1.23
Primary Bets
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