Fulham vs Manchester United Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fulham
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Manchester United
Kick-off 15:30 Stadium Craven Cottage

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fulham opened at -0.25 against Manchester United in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
Fulham +0.49

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.77
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fulham -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.74
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.74 AH points more toward Manchester United than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Manchester United +0.25
@ 1.79
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.74
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.44
Price Advantage
+24.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:47
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.94 / 1.71 -0.25 2.95 / 1.74 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.04 / 1.78 -0.25 3.06 / 1.79 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.00 / 1.70 -0.25 3.00 / 1.70 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 2.69 / 1.56 -0.25 3.13 / 1.74 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 3.00 / 1.78 -0.25 2.95 / 1.78 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.50 3.20 / 1.92 -0.50 3.15 / 1.91 -0.50 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.85 4.27
-1.50 7.10 3.42
-1.25 6.68 3.08
-1.00 6.20 2.73
-0.75 4.25 2.24
-0.25 3.13 1.74
0 2.66 1.57
+0.25 2.05 1.44
+0.75 1.59 1.20
+1.00 1.41 1.09
+1.25 1.31 1.08
+1.50 1.26 1.06

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.30
-1.25 6.80 3.00
-1.00 6.25 2.68
-0.75 4.25 2.20
-0.50 3.45 2.00
-0.25 3.00 1.70
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.10 1.38
+0.50 1.85 1.30
+0.75 1.65 1.21
+1.00 1.45 1.12
+1.25 1.38 1.10
+1.50 1.32 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.00 2.20
-0.50 3.15 1.91
-0.25 2.82 1.69
0 2.47 1.46
+0.25 2.01 1.36
+0.50 1.77 1.29
+0.75 1.57 1.19

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.95 1.78
+0.25 2.10 1.42

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.50 4.30
-1.50 7.10 3.42
-1.25 6.65 3.10
-1.00 6.20 2.73
-0.75 4.25 2.25
-0.25 2.95 1.74
0 2.56 1.51
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.75 1.60 1.20
+1.00 1.41 1.09
+1.25 1.32 1.07
+1.50 1.26 1.06

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.49 2.07
-0.25 3.06 1.79
0 2.65 1.54
+0.25 2.13 1.42
+0.50 1.87 1.34
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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