Turkey W vs Slovenia W Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Turkey W
Final Score
3 – 3
(HT 2-0)
Slovenia W
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Pendik Stadyumu

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Turkey W opened at -0.25 against Slovenia W in the World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.06 / 1.11
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Turkey W -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Slovenia W than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Slovenia W +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+20.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:18
Opening
-0.25
12:38
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.83 / 1.68 -0.25 2.35 / 1.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.01 / 1.70 -0.25 2.41 / 1.91 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 1.92 0 1.90 / 1.90 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.84 / 1.69 -0.25 2.36 / 1.94 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.84 / 1.91 -0.25 1.88 / 1.92 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 9.30
-2.00 7.30 8.60
-1.75 7.70 5.75
-1.50 5.85 4.45
-1.25 5.41 4.05
-1.00 4.95 3.58
-0.75 3.35 2.64
-0.25 2.36 1.94
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.73 1.48
+0.75 1.39 1.25
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.25 1.17 1.09
+1.50 1.14 1.07
+1.75 1.07 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.05 2.00
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.80 1.75

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 1.92
0 1.84 1.83
+0.25 1.76 1.79

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.10 9.30
-2.00 8.40 8.60
-1.75 7.70 5.75
-1.50 5.85 4.45
-1.25 5.40 4.05
-1.00 4.95 3.58
-0.75 3.34 2.62
-0.25 2.35 1.92
0 2.03 1.66
+0.25 1.71 1.47
+0.75 1.38 1.24
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.25 1.17 1.09
+1.50 1.14 1.07
+1.75 1.07 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.13 3.29
-0.75 2.91 2.53
-0.50 2.73 2.16
-0.25 2.41 1.91
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.79 1.46
+0.50 1.60 1.36
+0.75 1.42 1.32
+1.00 1.25 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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