Peterhead vs Queen of the South Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Peterhead
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.17 1.43
Queen of the South
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Peterhead opened at -0.25 against Queen of the South in the League One. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
Peterhead +0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Peterhead -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.48
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.48 AH points more toward Queen of the South than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Queen of the South +0.25
@ 2.88
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.48
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+85.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.62 / 2.88 -0.25 1.62 / 2.88 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 2.85 -0.25 1.72 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.23
xG 1.17 / 1.43 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.62
Peterhead @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.82
Peterhead @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.62 vs 2.82
Market price is 42.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 8.90
-1.50 3.20 6.85
-1.25 2.87 6.45
-1.00 2.52 6.05
-0.75 2.07 4.10
-0.25 1.63 2.88
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.08
+0.75 1.16 1.61
+1.00 1.06 1.41
+1.25 1.05 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 7.00
-1.25 3.10 6.40
-1.00 2.68 6.00
-0.75 2.25 4.10
-0.50 1.82 3.30
-0.25 1.72 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.08
+0.50 1.32 1.98
+0.75 1.23 1.62
+1.00 1.12 1.45
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.10 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 8.90
-1.50 3.20 6.85
-1.25 2.88 6.45
-1.00 2.52 6.05
-0.75 2.07 4.10
-0.25 1.62 2.88
0 1.42 2.56
+0.25 1.32 2.06
+0.75 1.16 1.61
+1.00 1.06 1.41
+1.25 1.05 1.32
+1.50 1.04 1.26
Primary Bets
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