Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ayr Utd
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.22 1.38
Dunfermline
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ayr Utd opened at -0.25 against Dunfermline in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Ayr Utd +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Ayr Utd -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Dunfermline than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Dunfermline +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+20.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.49 / 1.89 -0.25 2.66 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.70 / 1.97 -0.25 2.91 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.95 -0.25 2.68 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.51 / 1.89 -0.25 2.69 / 1.81 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.65 / 1.95 -0.25 2.65 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.68 / 1.83 -0.25 2.68 / 1.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
xG 1.22 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.91
Ayr Utd @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.62
Ayr Utd @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.91 vs 2.62
Market price is 11.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 5.50
-1.50 7.20 4.20
-1.25 6.70 3.78
-1.00 6.15 3.28
-0.75 3.98 2.49
-0.25 2.69 1.81
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.81 1.38
+0.75 1.42 1.17
+1.00 1.25 1.06
+1.25 1.19 1.05
+1.50 1.15 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 6.25 3.70
-1.00 5.90 3.30
-0.75 3.90 2.50
-0.50 3.10 2.15
-0.25 2.68 1.90
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.35
+0.75 1.50 1.24
+1.00 1.32 1.13
+1.25 1.26 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.68 1.83
0 2.27 1.54
+0.25 1.84 1.39

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.65 1.95
+0.25 1.83 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.10 5.50
-1.50 7.20 4.20
-1.25 6.70 3.78
-1.00 6.15 3.28
-0.75 3.98 2.49
-0.25 2.66 1.81
0 2.27 1.53
+0.25 1.81 1.37
+0.75 1.42 1.17
+1.00 1.25 1.06
+1.25 1.19 1.05
+1.50 1.15 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.32 2.58
-0.50 3.35 2.17
-0.25 2.91 1.86
0 2.44 1.55
+0.25 1.94 1.40
+0.50 1.68 1.31
+0.75 1.49 1.21
Primary Bets
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