Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Aberdeen
Oct 11, 2026 - 13:00
1.41 1.58
ST Johnstone
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Aberdeen opened at -0.25 against ST Johnstone in the Premiership. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
Aberdeen +0.15

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Aberdeen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward ST Johnstone than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
ST Johnstone +0.25
@ 2.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.64
Price Advantage
+76.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.79 / 2.68 -0.25 1.79 / 2.68 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.88 / 2.90 -0.25 1.88 / 2.90 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.68 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.68 -0.25 1.83 / 2.68 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.85 -0.25 1.90 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.67 -0.25 1.81 / 2.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.15
xG 1.41 / 1.58 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.88
Aberdeen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.57
Aberdeen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.88 vs 2.57
Market price is 26.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.09 9.10
-1.50 3.94 6.85
-1.25 3.50 6.40
-1.00 3.08 5.90
-0.75 2.39 3.93
-0.25 1.83 2.68
0 1.54 2.35
+0.25 1.38 1.90
+0.75 1.17 1.46
+1.00 1.07 1.28
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.10 7.00
-1.25 3.70 6.40
-1.00 3.30 5.90
-0.75 2.50 4.00
-0.50 2.15 3.10
-0.25 1.88 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.68
+0.75 1.23 1.50
+1.00 1.13 1.32
+1.25 1.12 1.26
+1.50 1.10 1.23

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.81 2.70
0 1.53 2.29
+0.25 1.39 1.86

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.20 3.20
-0.25 1.90 2.85
+0.25 1.45 1.95
+0.50 1.38 1.72

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.10 9.10
-1.50 3.94 6.85
-1.25 3.50 6.40
-1.00 3.08 5.90
-0.75 2.39 3.94
-0.25 1.79 2.68
0 1.54 2.35
+0.25 1.38 1.86
+0.75 1.18 1.46
+1.00 1.07 1.28
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.57 4.32
-0.50 2.17 3.34
-0.25 1.88 2.90
0 1.57 2.45
+0.25 1.43 1.97
+0.50 1.33 1.71
+0.75 1.22 1.52
Primary Bets
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