Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Shimizu S-pulse
Oct 17, 2026 - 04:00
1.81 1.49
Gamba Osaka
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Shimizu S-pulse opened at -0.25 against Gamba Osaka in the J1 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.30
Shimizu S-pulse -0.30

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Shimizu S-pulse -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Shimizu S-pulse than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Gamba Osaka +0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+33.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.82 / 2.54 -0.25 1.82 / 2.54 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.73 -0.25 1.93 / 2.73 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.90 / 2.54 -0.25 1.90 / 2.54 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.58 -0.25 1.83 / 2.58 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.30
xG 1.81 / 1.49 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
Shimizu S-pulse @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.95
Shimizu S-pulse @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 1.95
Market price is 1.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.14 8.60
-1.50 3.98 6.40
-1.25 3.58 5.90
-1.00 3.14 5.40
-0.75 2.43 3.60
-0.25 1.90 2.54
0 1.63 2.31
+0.25 1.42 1.92
+0.75 1.21 1.44
+1.00 1.09 1.27
+1.25 1.07 1.21
+1.50 1.05 1.17

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.83 2.58
0 1.57 2.21
+0.25 1.42 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.15 8.60
-1.50 3.98 6.40
-1.25 3.58 5.90
-1.00 3.14 5.40
-0.75 2.43 3.60
-0.25 1.82 2.54
0 1.59 2.25
+0.25 1.42 1.83
+0.75 1.21 1.44
+1.00 1.09 1.27
+1.25 1.07 1.21
+1.50 1.05 1.17

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.60 3.95
-0.50 2.21 3.11
-0.25 1.93 2.73
0 1.63 2.32
+0.25 1.47 1.92
+0.50 1.37 1.69
+0.75 1.26 1.51
Primary Bets
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