Mito Hollyhock vs Urawa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mito Hollyhock
Oct 17, 2026 - 07:00
1.47 1.43
Urawa
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mito Hollyhock opened at -0.25 against Urawa in the J1 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mito Hollyhock -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Urawa than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mito Hollyhock -0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.28
Price Advantage
+39.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.89 / 1.68 -0.25 2.89 / 1.70 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.12 / 1.78 -0.25 3.14 / 1.80 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.78 -0.25 2.85 / 1.78 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.19 / 1.68 -0.25 3.19 / 1.70 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.89 / 1.73 -0.25 2.89 / 1.73 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.47 / 1.43 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.14
Mito Hollyhock @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.28
Mito Hollyhock @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.14 vs 2.28
Market price is 37.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 4.45
-1.50 7.10 3.50
-1.25 6.65 3.14
-1.00 6.25 2.81
-0.75 4.20 2.22
-0.25 3.19 1.70
0 2.60 1.51
+0.25 1.96 1.36
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.06
+1.25 1.27 1.05
+1.50 1.22 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 3.45
-1.00 6.40 3.00
-0.75 4.15 2.35
-0.50 3.30 2.02
-0.25 2.85 1.78
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 2.02 1.40
+0.50 1.78 1.32
+0.75 1.58 1.22
+1.00 1.38 1.12
+1.25 1.30 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.89 1.73
0 2.46 1.46
+0.25 1.95 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.20 4.45
-1.50 7.10 3.50
-1.25 6.65 3.14
-1.00 6.25 2.81
-0.75 4.20 2.22
-0.25 2.89 1.70
0 2.54 1.47
+0.25 1.96 1.33
+0.75 1.53 1.16
+1.00 1.33 1.06
+1.25 1.27 1.05
+1.50 1.22 1.04

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.70 2.44
-0.50 3.61 2.09
-0.25 3.14 1.80
0 2.65 1.50
+0.25 2.07 1.37
+0.50 1.78 1.29
+0.75 1.57 1.20
Primary Bets
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