Mito Hollyhock vs Shimizu S-pulse Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Mito Hollyhock
Oct 11, 2026 - 06:00
1.85 1.66
Shimizu S-pulse
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Mito Hollyhock opened at 0 against Shimizu S-pulse in the J1 League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
Mito Hollyhock -0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Mito Hollyhock 0
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Mito Hollyhock than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Mito Hollyhock 0
@ 1.97
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.82
Price Advantage
+8.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.92 / 1.81 0 1.92 / 1.81 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.94 / 1.91 0 1.94 / 1.91 — 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.97 / 1.86 0 1.97 / 1.86 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.65 / 1.62 +0.25 1.65 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.90 / 1.78 0 1.85 / 1.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.18
xG 1.85 / 1.66 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.94
Mito Hollyhock @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.82
Mito Hollyhock @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.94 vs 1.82
Market price is 6.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.80 9.50
-1.75 7.10 6.73
-1.50 5.35 4.95
-1.25 4.90 4.50
-1.00 4.45 4.05
-0.75 3.10 2.88
-0.25 2.32 2.09
0 1.97 1.86
+0.25 1.62 1.62
+0.75 1.32 1.28
+1.00 1.16 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.11
+1.50 1.11 1.09
+1.75 1.06 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 5.50
-1.25 5.00 5.00
-1.00 4.40 4.40
-0.75 3.30 3.30
-0.50 2.60 2.60
-0.25 2.25 2.25
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.62 1.62
+0.50 1.48 1.48
+0.75 1.32 1.32
+1.00 1.20 1.20
+1.25 1.17 1.17
+1.50 1.15 1.15

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.53 2.50
-0.25 2.19 2.17
0 1.85 1.82
+0.25 1.59 1.58
+0.50 1.45 1.44

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.57 2.55
-0.25 2.25 2.22
+0.25 1.65 1.62
+0.50 1.50 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.10 6.50
-1.50 5.35 4.95
-1.25 4.90 4.50
-1.00 4.45 4.05
-0.75 3.10 2.88
-0.25 2.21 2.09
0 1.92 1.81
+0.25 1.62 1.55
+0.75 1.32 1.28
+1.00 1.16 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.11
+1.50 1.11 1.09
+1.75 1.05 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.69 4.59
-0.75 3.32 3.25
-0.50 2.70 2.64
-0.25 2.32 2.27
0 1.94 1.91
+0.25 1.66 1.63
+0.50 1.50 1.48
+0.75 1.35 1.34
+1.00 1.21 1.20
Primary Bets
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