Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cerezo Osaka
Oct 10, 2026 - 05:00
1.54 1.64
Yokohama F. Marinos
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cerezo Osaka opened at -0.25 against Yokohama F. Marinos in the J1 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cerezo Osaka -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Yokohama F. Marinos than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Yokohama F. Marinos +0.25
@ 2.62
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+55.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.48 -0.25 1.83 / 2.48 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.70 +0.25 1.54 / 1.88 — +0.50
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.68 -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.91 / 2.48 -0.25 1.91 / 2.48 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 1.90 / 2.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 1.87 / 2.51 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.54 / 1.64 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Cerezo Osaka @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.44
Cerezo Osaka @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.44
Market price is 25.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.30
-1.50 3.78 5.70
-1.25 3.42 5.30
-1.00 3.05 4.90
-0.75 2.39 3.44
-0.25 1.91 2.48
0 1.65 2.27
+0.25 1.44 1.91
+0.75 1.23 1.46
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.08 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 5.90
-1.25 3.80 5.50
-1.00 3.45 5.00
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.25 2.85
-0.25 1.98 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.82
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.17 1.30
+1.25 1.15 1.25
+1.50 1.13 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.51
0 1.60 2.15
+0.25 1.45 1.80

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.90 2.57
+0.25 1.50 1.88

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.80 7.30
-1.50 3.78 5.70
-1.25 3.42 5.30
-1.00 3.05 4.90
-0.75 2.39 3.44
-0.25 1.83 2.48
0 1.61 2.21
+0.25 1.44 1.83
+0.75 1.23 1.46
+1.00 1.11 1.28
+1.25 1.09 1.23
+1.50 1.08 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.12

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.75 3.73
-0.50 2.32 2.99
-0.25 2.03 2.62
0 1.72 2.24
+0.25 1.54 1.88
+0.50 1.42 1.67
+0.75 1.30 1.50
Primary Bets
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