Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Avispa Fukuoka
Oct 10, 2026 - 06:00
1.29 0.96
Fagiano Okayama
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Avispa Fukuoka opened at -0.25 against Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Avispa Fukuoka -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Avispa Fukuoka -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Avispa Fukuoka than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Avispa Fukuoka -0.25
@ 2.66
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+36.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.51 / 1.94 -0.25 2.51 / 1.94 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.72 / 2.10 0 2.17 / 1.71 — +0.25
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 -0.25 2.50 / 2.02 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.63 / 1.94 -0.25 2.63 / 1.94 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.60 / 2.05 -0.25 2.57 / 2.05 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.51 / 1.97 -0.25 2.52 / 1.97 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.29 / 0.96 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.51
Avispa Fukuoka @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.95
Avispa Fukuoka @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.51 vs 1.95
Market price is 28.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.45 6.04
-1.50 6.45 4.65
-1.25 5.99 4.20
-1.00 5.50 3.78
-0.75 3.70 2.71
-0.25 2.63 1.94
0 2.19 1.69
+0.25 1.72 1.50
+0.75 1.36 1.20
+1.00 1.19 1.08
+1.25 1.15 1.06
+1.50 1.12 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 5.00
-1.25 6.40 4.40
-1.00 5.75 3.90
-0.75 3.70 2.85
-0.50 3.00 2.35
-0.25 2.50 2.02
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.78 1.50
+0.50 1.58 1.38
+0.75 1.40 1.26
+1.00 1.24 1.14
+1.25 1.20 1.12
+1.50 1.17 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.52 1.97
0 2.10 1.63
+0.25 1.72 1.44

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.57 2.05
+0.25 1.75 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.50 6.05
-1.50 6.45 4.65
-1.25 6.00 4.20
-1.00 5.50 3.78
-0.75 3.70 2.71
-0.25 2.51 1.94
0 2.14 1.65
+0.25 1.72 1.43
+0.75 1.36 1.20
+1.00 1.19 1.08
+1.25 1.15 1.06
+1.50 1.12 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.01 3.09
-0.50 3.12 2.50
-0.25 2.66 2.12
0 2.17 1.71
+0.25 1.76 1.50
+0.50 1.55 1.37
+0.75 1.38 1.25
Primary Bets
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