Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa Reysol Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tokyo Verdy
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Kashiwa Reysol
Kick-off 10:00 Stadium Ajinomoto Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tokyo Verdy opened at -0.50 against Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Kashiwa Reysol from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 1 of 1 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.49
Tokyo Verdy +0.49

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 0.72 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Tokyo Verdy -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 2 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.74
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.74 AH points more toward Kashiwa Reysol than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
1 / 1 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.50
06:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 5.10 / 2.10 -0.25 3.14 / 1.62 — +0.50
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.25 / 1.04 +1.50 1.25 / 1.04 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 4.34 / 1.92 -0.50 4.34 / 1.92 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 4.00 / 1.88 -0.50 4.00 / 1.88 — 0
1xBet +0.75 1.69 / 1.10 +0.75 1.69 / 1.10 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.87 / 1.22 +0.50 1.87 / 1.22 — 0
BetVictor 0 3.00 / 1.32 0 3.00 / 1.32 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.10 3.42
-1.25 8.65 3.08
-1.00 8.20 2.74
-0.75 5.10 2.19
-0.25 3.90 1.58
0 3.19 1.36
+0.25 2.15 1.26
+0.75 1.69 1.10
+1.00 1.42 1.02

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 5.50 2.15
-0.50 4.00 1.88
-0.25 3.55 1.62
0 3.00 1.38
+0.25 2.25 1.27
+0.50 1.92 1.23
+0.75 1.68 1.15

BetVictor Main —

AH Home Away
0 3.00 1.32

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.50 3.50
+1.50 1.25 1.04

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.50 3.56
-1.25 8.10 3.18
-1.00 7.70 2.86
-0.75 4.80 2.16
-0.25 3.14 1.62
0 2.71 1.36
+0.25 2.09 1.27
+0.75 1.59 1.12
+1.00 1.39 1.03
+1.25 1.28 1.02

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 4.34 1.92
-0.25 3.76 1.64
0 3.19 1.37
+0.25 2.33 1.28
+0.50 1.95 1.23

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 9.00 3.45
-0.50 3.85 1.85
+0.50 1.87 1.22
+1.50 1.27 1.04
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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