Parceiro Nagano vs Nara Club Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Parceiro Nagano
Oct 03, 2026 - 05:00
1.13 1.47
Nara Club
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Parceiro Nagano opened at 0 against Nara Club in the J3 League. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
Parceiro Nagano +0.31

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Parceiro Nagano 0
Model–Market Gap
0.31
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.31 AH points more toward Nara Club than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Nara Club 0
@ 1.71
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.31
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.65
Price Advantage
+3.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.71 0 1.96 / 1.71 — 0
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.71 0 1.96 / 1.71 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.42 / 1.95 -0.25 2.42 / 1.95 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.31
xG 1.13 / 1.47 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.96
Parceiro Nagano @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.54
Parceiro Nagano @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.96 vs 2.54
Market price is 22.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.50 8.80
-1.75 7.55 6.33
-1.50 5.65 4.65
-1.25 5.15 4.20
-1.00 4.70 3.74
-0.75 3.20 2.74
-0.25 2.30 1.98
0 1.96 1.71
+0.25 1.67 1.51
+0.75 1.35 1.26
+1.00 1.19 1.12
+1.25 1.15 1.10
+1.50 1.12 1.08
+1.75 1.07 1.03

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.50 2.20
-0.25 2.42 1.95
+0.25 1.80 1.53
+0.50 1.62 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.60 6.10
-1.50 5.65 4.65
-1.25 5.15 4.20
-1.00 4.70 3.74
-0.75 3.20 2.74
-0.25 2.28 1.98
0 1.96 1.71
+0.25 1.67 1.50
+0.75 1.35 1.26
+1.00 1.19 1.12
+1.25 1.15 1.10
+1.50 1.12 1.08
+1.75 1.06 1.03
Primary Bets
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