Maccabi Herzliya vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maccabi Herzliya
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maccabi Herzliya opened at -0.25 against Maccabi Ahi Nazareth in the Liga Leumit. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Maccabi Herzliya -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Maccabi Ahi Nazareth than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+83.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.58 / 3.08 -0.25 1.56 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.58 / 3.08 -0.25 1.56 / 3.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 8.30
-1.25 2.86 7.85
-1.00 2.53 7.50
-0.75 2.02 4.80
-0.25 1.56 3.20
0 1.33 2.81
+0.25 1.26 2.15
+0.75 1.12 1.64
+1.00 1.03 1.43
+1.25 1.02 1.34

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.60 7.00
-0.75 2.15 4.50
-0.50 1.90 3.55
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.42 2.75
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.27 1.90
+0.75 1.19 1.68
+1.00 1.10 1.48

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 8.30
-1.25 2.83 7.90
-1.00 2.53 7.50
-0.75 2.02 4.80
-0.25 1.56 3.20
0 1.33 2.81
+0.25 1.26 2.15
+0.75 1.11 1.64
+1.00 1.03 1.43
+1.25 1.02 1.33
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More