Ironi Modi'in vs Hapoel Afula Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Ironi Modi'in
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Hapoel Afula
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Ironi Modi'in opened at 0 against Hapoel Afula in the Liga Leumit. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Ironi Modi'in from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Ironi Modi'in -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward Hapoel Afula than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hapoel Afula +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+16.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
12:30
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.98 / 1.70 -0.25 2.35 / 1.94 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.78 / 1.50 -0.25 2.55 / 1.95 — -0.50
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.78 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet 0 1.98 / 1.70 -0.25 2.38 / 1.94 — -0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.10 / 1.74 -0.25 2.10 / 1.74 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.60 8.30
-1.75 7.39 5.55
-1.50 5.60 4.30
-1.25 5.15 3.90
-1.00 4.75 3.50
-0.75 3.28 2.62
-0.25 2.38 1.94
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.70 1.49
+0.75 1.38 1.25
+1.00 1.22 1.12
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.14 1.08
+1.75 1.08 1.03

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 5.75
-1.50 5.75 4.25
-1.25 5.25 3.80
-1.00 4.65 3.45
-0.75 3.45 2.68
-0.50 2.75 2.25
-0.25 2.42 2.00
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.62 1.42
+0.75 1.45 1.30
+1.00 1.30 1.18
+1.25 1.25 1.16
+1.50 1.21 1.14
+1.75 1.14 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.10 1.74
0 1.85 1.52
+0.25 1.60 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.40 5.55
-1.50 5.60 4.30
-1.25 5.15 3.90
-1.00 4.75 3.50
-0.75 3.28 2.62
-0.25 2.35 1.94
0 2.03 1.67
+0.25 1.70 1.47
+0.75 1.38 1.25
+1.00 1.22 1.12
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.14 1.08
+1.75 1.08 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.34 2.60
-0.50 2.91 2.23
-0.25 2.55 1.95
0 2.19 1.64
+0.25 1.84 1.47
+0.50 1.62 1.37
+0.75 1.45 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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