Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Green Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maccabi Bnei Raina opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Kfar Shalem in the Liga Leumit. The current market consensus is -0.50, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Maccabi Bnei Raina from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.50 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Maccabi Bnei Raina -0.50
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Hapoel Kfar Shalem than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hapoel Kfar Shalem +0.50
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+86.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.50
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.50
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.50
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
12:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
16:00
PRE1
-0.50
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.52 -0.25 1.64 / 2.83 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.89 / 2.55 -0.50 1.89 / 3.06 -0.50 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 -0.50 1.88 / 3.10 -0.50 -0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.77 / 2.52 -0.25 1.64 / 2.83 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.14 6.55
-1.25 2.86 6.15
-1.00 2.56 5.75
-0.75 2.08 3.98
-0.25 1.64 2.83
0 1.43 2.46
+0.25 1.33 2.02
+0.75 1.17 1.60
+1.00 1.07 1.42
+1.25 1.06 1.34
+1.50 1.05 1.27

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.10 5.90
-1.00 2.75 5.75
-0.75 2.25 3.90
-0.50 1.88 3.10
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.35 1.92
+0.75 1.24 1.62
+1.00 1.14 1.42
+1.25 1.13 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.14 6.55
-1.25 2.83 6.15
-1.00 2.56 5.75
-0.75 2.08 3.98
-0.25 1.64 2.83
0 1.43 2.46
+0.25 1.33 2.02
+0.75 1.17 1.60
+1.00 1.07 1.42
+1.25 1.06 1.33
+1.50 1.05 1.27

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.89 3.06
-0.25 1.67 2.98
0 1.44 2.62
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.34 1.89
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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