Hapoel Ra'anana vs Kafr Qasim Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hapoel Ra'anana
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Kafr Qasim
Kick-off 16:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hapoel Ra'anana opened at -0.25 against Kafr Qasim in the Liga Leumit. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hapoel Ra'anana -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Kafr Qasim than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kafr Qasim +0.25
@ 3.08
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+67.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:15
Opening
-0.25
12:18
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.75 / 2.66 -0.25 1.58 / 3.08 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.82 / 2.79 -0.50 1.85 / 3.17 -0.50 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.66 -0.25 1.59 / 3.08 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 9.00
-1.50 3.20 7.90
-1.25 2.83 7.40
-1.00 2.49 6.95
-0.75 2.03 4.54
-0.25 1.59 3.08
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.14
+0.75 1.13 1.63
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.80
-1.25 2.85 7.00
-1.00 2.50 6.60
-0.75 2.10 4.25
-0.50 1.88 3.45
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.30 1.92
+0.75 1.21 1.70
+1.00 1.11 1.50
+1.25 1.10 1.40
+1.50 1.10 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.00 9.00
-1.50 3.20 7.90
-1.25 2.83 7.40
-1.00 2.49 6.95
-0.75 2.03 4.55
-0.25 1.58 3.08
0 1.38 2.70
+0.25 1.28 2.12
+0.75 1.13 1.63
+1.00 1.04 1.42
+1.25 1.03 1.33
+1.50 1.02 1.26

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.85 3.17
-0.25 1.62 3.25
0 1.39 2.83
+0.25 1.30 2.23
+0.50 1.32 1.93
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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