Maccabi Bnei Raina vs Hapoel Ra'anana Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Maccabi Bnei Raina
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-2)
Hapoel Ra'anana
Kick-off 16:45 Stadium Green Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Maccabi Bnei Raina opened at -0.25 against Hapoel Ra'anana in the Liga Leumit. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Maccabi Bnei Raina -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Hapoel Ra'anana than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Hapoel Ra'anana +0.25
@ 3.14
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+77.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:33
Opening
-0.25
16:19
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
16:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.96 / 2.33 -0.25 1.66 / 2.88 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.74 / 2.04 -0.50 1.93 / 3.11 -0.25 -0.50
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.98 / 2.33 -0.25 1.68 / 2.88 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.64 / 2.23 -0.25 1.53 / 2.24 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.15 9.10
-1.50 3.34 6.95
-1.25 2.97 6.49
-1.00 2.66 6.05
-0.75 2.17 4.14
-0.25 1.68 2.88
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.32 2.00
+0.75 1.16 1.55
+1.00 1.06 1.37
+1.25 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 6.25
-1.25 3.45 5.90
-1.00 3.00 5.50
-0.75 2.38 3.80
-0.50 2.08 3.10
-0.25 1.82 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.98
+0.50 1.35 1.72
+0.75 1.25 1.55
+1.00 1.15 1.38
+1.25 1.13 1.30
+1.50 1.12 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.53 2.24
0 1.35 2.18
+0.25 1.33 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.15 9.10
-1.50 3.28 6.95
-1.25 2.97 6.55
-1.00 2.66 6.10
-0.75 2.15 4.15
-0.25 1.66 2.88
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.32 1.99
+0.75 1.16 1.56
+1.00 1.06 1.37
+1.25 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.93 3.11
-0.25 1.68 3.14
0 1.43 2.72
+0.25 1.34 2.18
+0.50 1.34 1.89
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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