Étoile Carouge vs Yverdon Sport Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Étoile Carouge
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:15
1.27 1.33
Yverdon Sport
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Étoile Carouge opened at -0.25 against Yverdon Sport in the Challenge League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Étoile Carouge -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Yverdon Sport than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Yverdon Sport +0.25
@ 1.92
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+13.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.43 / 1.83 -0.25 2.43 / 1.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.59 / 1.92 -0.25 2.59 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.46 / 1.83 -0.25 2.46 / 1.83 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.47 / 1.90 -0.25 2.47 / 1.90 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.27 / 1.33 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.59
Étoile Carouge @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.45
Étoile Carouge @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.59 vs 2.45
Market price is 5.7% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.90 7.40
-1.75 7.75 5.00
-1.50 5.85 3.90
-1.25 5.39 3.50
-1.00 4.90 3.08
-0.75 3.42 2.43
-0.25 2.46 1.83
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.79 1.46
+0.75 1.44 1.23
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.22 1.09
+1.50 1.18 1.07
+1.75 1.10 1.02

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.47 1.90
+0.25 1.83 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.80 5.00
-1.50 5.85 3.90
-1.25 5.40 3.50
-1.00 4.90 3.08
-0.75 3.42 2.43
-0.25 2.43 1.83
0 2.13 1.60
+0.25 1.79 1.44
+0.75 1.44 1.23
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.22 1.09
+1.50 1.18 1.07
+1.75 1.10 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.61 2.54
-0.50 2.92 2.18
-0.25 2.59 1.92
0 2.23 1.64
+0.25 1.88 1.49
+0.50 1.68 1.39
+0.75 1.50 1.27
Primary Bets
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