Loznica vs Borac Cacak Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Loznica
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-0)
Borac Cacak
Kick-off 18:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Loznica opened at 0 against Borac Cacak in the Prva Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Loznica from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Loznica -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Borac Cacak than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Borac Cacak +0.25
@ 2.46
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+39.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:15
Opening
0
17:49
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.73 / 1.93 0 1.73 / 1.93 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.99 / 2.46 -0.25 1.99 / 2.46 — 0
1xBet 0 1.61 / 2.17 -0.25 2.02 / 2.46 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.73 1.93

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.20 6.85
-1.00 4.20 5.80
-0.75 2.88 3.74
-0.25 2.02 2.46
0 1.66 2.06
+0.25 1.43 1.69
+0.75 1.19 1.32
+1.00 1.07 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.20 6.85
-1.00 4.20 5.80
-0.75 2.88 3.74
-0.25 1.99 2.46
0 1.66 2.06
+0.25 1.43 1.66
+0.75 1.19 1.32
+1.00 1.07 1.16
+1.50 1.04 1.10
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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