Macva vs Mladost Lucani Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Macva
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-0)
Mladost Lucani
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Gradski Stadion Sabac

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Macva opened at -0.25 against Mladost Lucani in the Super Liga. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Mladost Lucani from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.40
Macva -0.40

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.78 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Macva 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.40
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.40 AH points more toward Macva than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Macva 0
@ 1.88
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.40
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.61
Price Advantage
+16.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:38
Opening
-0.25
13:16
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.88 / 2.49 0 1.81 / 1.85 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.93 / 1.85 0 1.85 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.60 0 1.82 / 1.98 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 1.97 / 2.55 0 1.88 / 1.92 — +0.25
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.55 -0.25 2.20 / 2.27 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.95 / 1.96 -0.25 1.91 / 2.00 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.90 8.20
-1.50 5.75 5.95
-1.25 5.30 5.44
-1.00 4.88 5.11
-0.75 3.18 3.25
-0.25 2.24 2.27
0 1.88 1.92
+0.25 1.58 1.65
+0.75 1.28 1.31
+1.00 1.12 1.14
+1.25 1.09 1.10
+1.50 1.07 1.07
+1.75 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 6.00
-1.25 5.25 5.75
-1.00 4.50 5.00
-0.75 3.10 3.45
-0.50 2.50 2.68
-0.25 2.20 2.35
0 1.82 1.98
+0.25 1.58 1.65
+0.50 1.45 1.50
+0.75 1.30 1.35
+1.00 1.17 1.19
+1.25 1.14 1.16
+1.50 1.12 1.14

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.18 2.27
-0.25 1.91 2.00
0 1.63 1.71
+0.25 1.43 1.48
+0.50 1.32 1.35

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.62
-0.25 2.20 2.27
+0.25 1.60 1.62
+0.50 1.45 1.47

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.90 8.20
-1.50 5.75 5.95
-1.25 5.20 5.40
-1.00 4.65 4.85
-0.75 3.08 3.20
-0.25 2.14 2.21
0 1.81 1.85
+0.25 1.53 1.57
+0.75 1.26 1.28
+1.00 1.11 1.12
+1.25 1.09 1.10
+1.50 1.07 1.07
+1.75 1.02 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.13 3.28
-0.50 2.54 2.64
-0.25 2.21 2.30
0 1.85 1.93
+0.25 1.58 1.63
+0.50 1.44 1.47
+0.75 1.30 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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