Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Raków Częstochowa
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:30
1.75 2.16
GKS Katowice
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
+0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Raków Częstochowa opened at -0.25 against GKS Katowice in the Ekstraklasa. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.39
Raków Częstochowa +0.39

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Raków Częstochowa -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.64
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.64 AH points more toward GKS Katowice than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
GKS Katowice +0.25
@ 2.58
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.64
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.55
Price Advantage
+66.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.40 -0.25 1.83 / 2.40 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.51 / 1.91 +0.25 1.51 / 1.91 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.87 / 2.40 -0.25 1.87 / 2.40 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.90 / 2.50 -0.25 1.90 / 2.50 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.39
xG 1.75 / 2.16 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.83
Raków Częstochowa @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.82
Raków Częstochowa @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.83 vs 2.82
Market price is 35.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.50 9.60
-1.75 4.64 7.02
-1.50 3.70 5.25
-1.25 3.34 4.85
-1.00 2.97 4.50
-0.75 2.38 3.28
-0.25 1.87 2.40
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.46 1.84
+0.75 1.25 1.46
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.11 1.24
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.05 1.12

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.90 2.50
+0.25 1.52 1.87

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.65 6.70
-1.50 3.70 5.25
-1.25 3.34 4.85
-1.00 2.97 4.50
-0.75 2.38 3.28
-0.25 1.83 2.40
0 1.64 2.14
+0.25 1.46 1.80
+0.75 1.25 1.46
+1.00 1.13 1.30
+1.25 1.11 1.24
+1.50 1.09 1.20
+1.75 1.05 1.12

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.53 3.56
-0.50 2.17 2.90
-0.25 1.93 2.58
0 1.66 2.24
+0.25 1.51 1.91
+0.50 1.41 1.70
+0.75 1.29 1.53
Primary Bets
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