Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Pogon Szczecin
Oct 11, 2026 - 15:30
1.43 0.92
Korona Kielce
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Pogon Szczecin opened at -0.25 against Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.46
Pogon Szczecin -0.46

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Pogon Szczecin -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Pogon Szczecin than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Korona Kielce +0.25
@ 2.89
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.30
Price Advantage
+25.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.78 / 2.58 -0.25 1.78 / 2.58 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.95 / 2.89 -0.25 1.95 / 2.89 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 -0.25 1.88 / 2.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.82 / 2.58 -0.25 1.82 / 2.58 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.88 / 2.67 -0.25 1.88 / 2.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.46
xG 1.43 / 0.92 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.95
Pogon Szczecin @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.77
Pogon Szczecin @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.95 vs 1.77
Market price is 10.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.74 7.90
-1.50 3.74 6.05
-1.25 3.34 5.69
-1.00 2.97 5.25
-0.75 2.33 3.58
-0.25 1.82 2.58
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.89
+0.75 1.21 1.48
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 6.60
-1.25 3.55 6.25
-1.00 3.30 5.75
-0.75 2.50 3.90
-0.50 2.15 3.10
-0.25 1.88 2.75
0 1.58 2.35
+0.25 1.42 1.92
+0.50 1.35 1.68
+0.75 1.24 1.50
+1.00 1.14 1.32
+1.25 1.12 1.27
+1.50 1.11 1.23

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.67
+0.25 1.45 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.75 7.90
-1.50 3.74 6.05
-1.25 3.34 5.70
-1.00 2.97 5.25
-0.75 2.33 3.58
-0.25 1.78 2.58
0 1.56 2.29
+0.25 1.40 1.85
+0.75 1.21 1.48
+1.00 1.09 1.30
+1.25 1.08 1.24
+1.50 1.06 1.19
+1.75 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 4.30
-0.50 2.29 3.37
-0.25 1.95 2.89
0 1.59 2.38
+0.25 1.42 1.88
+0.50 1.32 1.63
+0.75 1.22 1.47
Primary Bets
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