Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Legia Warszawa
Oct 11, 2026 - 18:15
1.45 1.34
Wisla Krakow
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Legia Warszawa opened at -0.25 against Wisla Krakow in the Ekstraklasa. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.10
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Legia Warszawa -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.15
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.15 AH points more toward Wisla Krakow than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Wisla Krakow +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.15
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.84
Price Advantage
+63.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.77 -0.25 1.67 / 2.77 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.75 / 2.99 -0.25 1.75 / 2.99 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 -0.25 1.75 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.70 / 2.77 -0.25 1.70 / 2.77 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 2.77 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.10
xG 1.45 / 1.34 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.75
Legia Warszawa @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.19
Legia Warszawa @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.75 vs 2.19
Market price is 20.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.05 8.20
-1.50 3.28 6.35
-1.25 2.92 5.95
-1.00 2.59 5.55
-0.75 2.14 3.88
-0.25 1.70 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 2.04
+0.75 1.18 1.57
+1.00 1.08 1.39
+1.25 1.07 1.31
+1.50 1.06 1.25
+1.75 1.02 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 7.00
-1.25 3.10 6.60
-1.00 2.75 6.00
-0.75 2.30 4.15
-0.50 2.00 3.45
-0.25 1.75 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.05
+0.50 1.30 1.80
+0.75 1.22 1.60
+1.00 1.12 1.42
+1.25 1.11 1.35
+1.50 1.10 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.75
+0.25 1.44 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.05 8.20
-1.50 3.28 6.35
-1.25 2.92 5.95
-1.00 2.59 5.55
-0.75 2.14 3.88
-0.25 1.67 2.77
0 1.48 2.49
+0.25 1.35 2.00
+0.75 1.18 1.57
+1.00 1.08 1.39
+1.25 1.07 1.31
+1.50 1.06 1.25
+1.75 1.02 1.16

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.00 3.38
-0.25 1.75 2.99
0 1.50 2.60
+0.25 1.39 2.11
+0.50 1.32 1.85
Primary Bets
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