Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jagiellonia
Aug 16, 2026 - 15:30 PST
1.29 1.38
Pogon Szczecin
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jagiellonia opened at 0 against Pogon Szczecin in the Ekstraklasa. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Jagiellonia from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Jagiellonia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.33
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.50 · 1 / 4 books · Weak

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.33 AH points more toward Pogon Szczecin than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Pogon Szczecin +0.25
@ 2.55
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.33
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+52.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.67 / 2.15 0 1.67 / 2.15 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.65 / 2.14 -0.25 1.87 / 2.40 — -0.25
Unibet -0.50 2.10 / 2.85 -0.50 2.10 / 2.85 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
xG 1.29 / 1.38 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.87
Jagiellonia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.49
Jagiellonia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.87 vs 2.49
Market price is 24.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.67 2.15

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.93 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.20 7.70
-1.50 4.05 5.75
-1.25 3.58 5.30
-1.00 3.20 4.80
-0.75 2.48 3.38
-0.25 1.87 2.40
0 1.65 2.14
+0.25 1.47 1.78
+0.75 1.24 1.43
+1.00 1.12 1.26
+1.25 1.09 1.21
+1.50 1.07 1.17
+1.75 1.03 1.10

Unibet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.80 5.50
-0.50 2.10 2.85
+0.50 1.35 1.63
+1.50 1.10 1.21
Primary Bets
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