Paris FC vs Rennes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Paris FC
Oct 18, 2026 - 15:15
1.93 1.22
Rennes
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Paris FC opened at -0.25 against Rennes in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
Paris FC -0.67

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Paris FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward Paris FC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Paris FC -0.25
@ 2.03
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.65
Price Advantage
+23.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.92 / 2.63 -0.25 1.92 / 2.63 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.03 / 2.76 -0.25 2.03 / 2.76 — 0
Bet365 0 1.70 / 2.10 0 1.70 / 2.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.02 / 2.63 -0.25 2.02 / 2.63 — 0
Betano -0.50 2.30 / 3.00 -0.50 2.30 / 3.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.91 / 2.43 -0.25 1.91 / 2.43 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.67
xG 1.93 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Paris FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.65
Paris FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 1.65
Market price is 23.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.02 7.80
-1.50 3.98 6.00
-1.25 3.67 5.61
-1.00 3.28 5.30
-0.75 2.59 3.70
-0.25 2.02 2.63
0 1.70 2.34
+0.25 1.45 1.92
+0.75 1.24 1.45
+1.00 1.12 1.29
+1.25 1.09 1.24
+1.50 1.08 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.12

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.25 5.75
-1.25 3.80 5.25
-1.00 3.45 4.65
-0.75 2.68 3.45
-0.50 2.25 2.75
-0.25 2.02 2.42
0 1.70 2.10
+0.25 1.52 1.82
+0.50 1.42 1.62
+0.75 1.30 1.45
+1.00 1.18 1.30
+1.25 1.16 1.25
+1.50 1.14 1.21

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.59 3.45
-0.50 2.17 2.77
-0.25 1.91 2.43
0 1.64 2.08
+0.25 1.47 1.77
+0.50 1.37 1.59
+0.75 1.25 1.42

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 3.00
+0.50 1.42 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 7.80
-1.50 3.98 6.00
-1.25 3.65 5.65
-1.00 3.28 5.30
-0.75 2.59 3.72
-0.25 1.92 2.63
0 1.65 2.27
+0.25 1.45 1.83
+0.75 1.24 1.45
+1.00 1.12 1.29
+1.25 1.10 1.23
+1.50 1.08 1.19
+1.75 1.03 1.11

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.82 4.02
-0.50 2.37 3.20
-0.25 2.03 2.76
0 1.68 2.29
+0.25 1.48 1.86
+0.50 1.37 1.63
+0.75 1.26 1.47
Primary Bets
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