Lorient vs Monaco Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lorient
Oct 18, 2026 - 15:15
1.05 1.11
Monaco
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lorient opened at -0.25 against Monaco in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Lorient -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Monaco than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Lorient -0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.53
Price Advantage
+20.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.04 / 1.72 -0.25 3.04 / 1.72 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet 0 2.74 / 1.54 0 2.74 / 1.54 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 3.00 / 1.67 -0.25 3.00 / 1.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
xG 1.05 / 1.11 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.04
Lorient @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.53
Lorient @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.04 vs 2.53
Market price is 20.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 4.57
-1.50 8.10 3.58
-1.25 7.60 3.22
-1.00 7.10 2.85
-0.75 4.60 2.25
-0.25 3.41 1.72
0 2.74 1.54
+0.25 2.05 1.38
+0.75 1.57 1.17
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.23 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 3.70
-1.25 7.00 3.30
-1.00 6.40 3.00
-0.75 4.15 2.35
-0.50 3.30 2.02
-0.25 2.85 1.75
0 2.50 1.50
+0.25 2.05 1.40
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.58 1.22
+1.00 1.38 1.12
+1.25 1.32 1.10
+1.50 1.26 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.40 1.92
-0.25 3.00 1.67
0 2.56 1.43
+0.25 2.03 1.32
+0.50 1.76 1.25

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.70 4.60
-1.50 8.10 3.58
-1.25 7.60 3.24
-1.00 7.10 2.85
-0.75 4.60 2.26
-0.25 3.04 1.72
0 2.66 1.49
+0.25 2.05 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.17
+1.00 1.37 1.06
+1.25 1.28 1.05
+1.50 1.23 1.03
Primary Bets
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