Le Mans vs Toulouse Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Le Mans
Oct 16, 2026 - 18:45
1.63 1.85
Toulouse
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Le Mans opened at -0.25 against Toulouse in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Le Mans +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Le Mans -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Toulouse than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Toulouse +0.25
@ 1.98
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.63
Price Advantage
+21.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.69 / 1.98 -0.25 2.69 / 1.98 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.98 -0.25 2.60 / 1.98 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.74 / 1.90 -0.25 2.74 / 1.90 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.88 / 1.50 -0.50 3.05 / 2.25 — -0.75
BetVictor -0.25 2.50 / 1.88 -0.25 2.50 / 1.88 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.63 / 1.85 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.69
Le Mans @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.59
Le Mans @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.69 vs 2.59
Market price is 3.9% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.95 5.32
-1.50 6.50 4.20
-1.25 6.08 3.72
-1.00 5.60 3.34
-0.75 3.82 2.58
-0.25 2.74 1.90
0 2.34 1.70
+0.25 1.84 1.54
+0.75 1.44 1.23
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.22 1.09
+1.50 1.17 1.06
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 4.15
-1.25 5.75 3.70
-1.00 5.25 3.45
-0.75 3.55 2.60
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.98
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.88 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.48 1.27
+1.00 1.30 1.16
+1.25 1.26 1.14
+1.50 1.22 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.60 2.56
-0.50 2.86 2.15
-0.25 2.50 1.88
0 2.15 1.60
+0.25 1.79 1.45
+0.50 1.60 1.35
+0.75 1.43 1.23

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.05 2.25
+0.50 1.67 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.70 5.35
-1.50 6.50 4.20
-1.25 6.05 3.74
-1.00 5.60 3.34
-0.75 3.82 2.59
-0.25 2.60 1.90
0 2.27 1.65
+0.25 1.84 1.46
+0.75 1.45 1.23
+1.00 1.28 1.11
+1.25 1.22 1.08
+1.50 1.17 1.06
+1.75 1.10 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.89 2.71
-0.50 3.09 2.28
-0.25 2.69 1.98
0 2.27 1.66
+0.25 1.88 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.48 1.26
Primary Bets
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