Le Mans vs Lorient Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Le Mans
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Lorient
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium MMArena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Le Mans opened at 0 against Lorient in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.58 / 1.46
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Le Mans 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Le Mans than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Le Mans 0
@ 2.06
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.87
Price Advantage
+10.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:18
Opening
0
17:27
Last Pre-Match
0
18:44
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.10 / 1.74 0 2.00 / 1.83 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.13 / 1.75 0 2.06 / 1.87 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.66 / 1.63 +0.25 1.73 / 1.60 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.78 0 2.02 / 1.82 0 0
1xBet 0 2.17 / 1.80 0 2.06 / 1.89 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.80 / 1.55 +0.25 1.75 / 1.60 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.37 / 1.98 0 1.92 / 1.76 0 +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 11.00
-2.00 11.00 8.80
-1.75 6.85 6.01
-1.50 5.30 4.75
-1.25 4.97 4.37
-1.00 4.55 3.92
-0.75 3.28 2.92
-0.25 2.43 2.13
0 2.06 1.89
+0.25 1.67 1.65
+0.75 1.35 1.30
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.16 1.14
+1.50 1.13 1.11
+1.75 1.06 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 6.80
-1.50 5.75 5.25
-1.25 5.25 4.50
-1.00 4.65 4.15
-0.75 3.45 3.00
-0.50 2.75 2.50
-0.25 2.38 2.15
0 2.02 1.82
+0.25 1.68 1.55
+0.50 1.50 1.42
+0.75 1.38 1.30
+1.00 1.22 1.18
+1.25 1.19 1.16
+1.50 1.16 1.14
+1.75 1.10 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.25 2.91
-0.50 2.61 2.39
-0.25 2.27 2.07
0 1.92 1.76
+0.25 1.64 1.54
+0.50 1.49 1.41
+0.75 1.34 1.28

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.50 3.00
-0.50 2.80 2.47
-0.25 2.42 2.15
+0.25 1.75 1.60
+0.50 1.57 1.47
+0.75 1.42 1.33

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.90 8.80
-1.75 6.80 6.05
-1.50 5.30 4.75
-1.25 4.95 4.40
-1.00 4.55 3.92
-0.75 3.28 2.94
-0.25 2.31 2.13
0 2.00 1.83
+0.25 1.67 1.57
+0.75 1.36 1.30
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.16 1.13
+1.50 1.13 1.11
+1.75 1.07 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.08 4.40
-0.75 3.56 3.18
-0.50 2.87 2.61
-0.25 2.47 2.24
0 2.06 1.87
+0.25 1.73 1.61
+0.50 1.55 1.47
+0.75 1.40 1.33
+1.00 1.25 1.20

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.38 2.17
+0.25 1.73 1.60
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More