Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Auxerre
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Stade Brestois 29
Kick-off 13:00 Stadium Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Auxerre opened at 0 against Stade Brestois 29 in the Ligue 1. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Auxerre from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 7 valid books, with 57% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.79
Auxerre +0.79

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.09 / 1.92
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Auxerre -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
+0.25 · 3 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
1.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 1.04 AH points more toward Stade Brestois 29 than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Stade Brestois 29 +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.31
Price Advantage
+52.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 7 valid books · 57% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → +0.25
Pinnacle Closing
+0.25
Consensus Closing
+0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
13:18
Opening
0
12:01
Last Pre-Match
+0.25
13:01
PRE1
+0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.97 / 1.83 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.01 / 1.85 +0.25 1.92 / 1.51 +0.25 +0.25
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.73 / 1.56 +0.25 1.90 / 1.56 +0.25 0
Bet365 0 2.02 / 1.82 0 2.25 / 1.62 +0.25 0
1xBet 0 2.04 / 1.90 -0.25 2.74 / 1.90 -0.25 -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.72 / 1.62 +0.25 1.88 / 1.52 +0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.89 / 1.79 -0.25 2.50 / 1.87 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 11.00 7.30
-1.75 8.15 5.07
-1.50 6.10 4.05
-1.25 5.73 3.64
-1.00 5.30 3.28
-0.75 3.64 2.55
-0.25 2.74 1.90
0 2.34 1.70
+0.25 1.84 1.54
+0.75 1.45 1.25
+1.00 1.29 1.12
+1.25 1.23 1.10
+1.50 1.18 1.08
+1.75 1.10 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 4.00
-1.25 5.75 3.70
-1.00 5.50 3.30
-0.75 3.70 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.20
-0.25 2.60 1.98
0 2.25 1.62
+0.25 1.88 1.48
+0.50 1.65 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.26
+1.00 1.32 1.15
+1.25 1.26 1.14
+1.50 1.23 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.60 2.53
-0.50 2.85 2.13
-0.25 2.50 1.87
0 2.15 1.60
+0.25 1.80 1.45
+0.50 1.61 1.35
+0.75 1.44 1.23

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.65 2.65
-0.50 3.00 2.25
-0.25 2.62 1.95
+0.25 1.88 1.52
+0.50 1.67 1.42
+0.75 1.50 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.90 5.10
-1.50 6.10 4.05
-1.25 5.70 3.65
-1.00 5.30 3.28
-0.75 3.64 2.56
-0.25 2.60 1.90
0 2.27 1.65
+0.25 1.84 1.46
+0.75 1.46 1.25
+1.00 1.29 1.12
+1.25 1.23 1.10
+1.50 1.18 1.08
+1.75 1.11 1.03

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.06 3.54
-0.75 4.01 2.73
-0.50 3.17 2.31
-0.25 2.76 2.00
0 2.33 1.68
+0.25 1.92 1.51
+0.50 1.69 1.40
+0.75 1.51 1.28
+1.00 1.34 1.20

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.47 1.98
+0.25 1.90 1.56
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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