Sochaux vs Boulogne Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Sochaux
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
1.38 1.22
Boulogne
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Sochaux opened at -0.25 against Boulogne in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
Sochaux -0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Sochaux -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Boulogne than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Boulogne +0.25
@ 2.85
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.88
Price Advantage
+51.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.85 / 2.64 -0.25 1.85 / 2.64 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.95 / 2.80 -0.25 1.97 / 2.80 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.64 -0.25 1.89 / 2.64 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.93 / 2.85 -0.25 1.93 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.83 / 2.77 -0.25 1.88 / 2.66 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.14
xG 1.38 / 1.22 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.97
Sochaux @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.14
Sochaux @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.97 vs 2.14
Market price is 7.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 7.60
-1.25 4.10 7.00
-1.00 3.58 6.40
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.89 2.64
0 1.58 2.27
+0.25 1.39 1.84
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.25 1.04 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.15 6.80
-1.00 3.55 6.25
-0.75 2.68 4.00
-0.50 2.25 3.10
-0.25 1.95 2.68
0 1.60 2.30
+0.25 1.45 1.85
+0.50 1.35 1.62
+0.75 1.23 1.45
+1.00 1.12 1.27
+1.25 1.10 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.66
0 1.56 2.23
+0.25 1.40 1.79

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.30 3.20
-0.25 1.93 2.85
+0.25 1.45 1.91
+0.50 1.37 1.65

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.60 7.60
-1.25 4.10 7.00
-1.00 3.58 6.40
-0.75 2.56 3.98
-0.25 1.85 2.64
0 1.58 2.27
+0.25 1.39 1.80
+0.75 1.17 1.40
+1.00 1.05 1.21
+1.25 1.04 1.16
+1.50 1.03 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.79 4.21
-0.50 2.30 3.24
-0.25 1.97 2.80
0 1.63 2.33
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.64
+0.75 1.23 1.46
Primary Bets
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