PAU vs Laval Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

PAU
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
1.31 1.29
Laval
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

PAU opened at -0.25 against Laval in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
PAU -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Laval than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Laval +0.25
@ 3.04
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+73.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.80 -0.25 1.72 / 2.80 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 3.02 -0.25 1.82 / 3.04 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.85 -0.25 1.80 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.80 -0.25 1.76 / 2.80 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.83 / 3.00 -0.25 1.83 / 3.00 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.76 / 2.82 -0.25 1.75 / 2.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.82
PAU @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
PAU @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.82 vs 2.33
Market price is 21.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.84 7.70
-1.25 3.42 7.10
-1.00 2.97 6.55
-0.75 2.29 4.19
-0.25 1.76 2.80
0 1.49 2.48
+0.25 1.35 1.98
+0.75 1.15 1.50
+1.00 1.05 1.30
+1.25 1.04 1.23
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.55 6.80
-1.00 3.30 6.25
-0.75 2.42 4.15
-0.50 2.10 3.30
-0.25 1.80 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.00
+0.50 1.32 1.70
+0.75 1.22 1.52
+1.00 1.12 1.32
+1.25 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.82
0 1.49 2.39
+0.25 1.36 1.93

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 3.45
-0.25 1.83 3.00
+0.25 1.42 2.02
+0.50 1.33 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.42 7.10
-0.75 2.29 4.20
-0.25 1.72 2.80
+0.25 1.35 1.94
+0.75 1.16 1.50
+1.25 1.04 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.46 4.50
-0.50 2.10 3.48
-0.25 1.82 3.04
0 1.53 2.57
+0.25 1.40 2.04
+0.50 1.31 1.76
+0.75 1.21 1.56
Primary Bets
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