Nancy vs Guingamp Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Nancy
Oct 09, 2026 - 18:00
1.31 1.29
Guingamp
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Nancy opened at -0.25 against Guingamp in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Nancy -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Guingamp than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Guingamp +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+71.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.83 / 2.51 -0.25 1.75 / 2.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.95 / 2.69 -0.25 1.78 / 2.99 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 2.68 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.51 -0.25 1.79 / 2.72 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.50 / 1.88 -0.25 1.85 / 2.87 — -0.50
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.60 -0.25 1.72 / 2.86 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.78
Nancy @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Nancy @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.78 vs 2.33
Market price is 23.6% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 9.20
-1.50 3.84 7.10
-1.25 3.42 6.55
-1.00 2.97 6.00
-0.75 2.33 3.94
-0.25 1.79 2.72
0 1.53 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.94
+0.75 1.17 1.48
+1.00 1.06 1.30
+1.25 1.05 1.23
+1.50 1.04 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.70 7.00
-1.25 3.45 6.80
-1.00 3.00 6.40
-0.75 2.35 4.25
-0.50 2.05 3.45
-0.25 1.78 3.00
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.38 2.02
+0.50 1.30 1.75
+0.75 1.21 1.58
+1.00 1.12 1.38
+1.25 1.10 1.30
+1.50 1.10 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 2.86
0 1.47 2.45
+0.25 1.35 1.97

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.12 3.30
-0.25 1.85 2.87
+0.25 1.45 2.00
+0.50 1.36 1.75

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 9.20
-1.50 3.84 7.10
-1.25 3.42 6.55
-1.00 2.97 6.00
-0.75 2.33 3.95
-0.25 1.75 2.72
0 1.53 2.38
+0.25 1.37 1.90
+0.75 1.17 1.48
+1.00 1.06 1.30
+1.25 1.05 1.23
+1.50 1.04 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.40 4.23
-0.50 2.06 3.42
-0.25 1.78 2.99
0 1.51 2.57
+0.25 1.39 2.06
+0.50 1.31 1.79
+0.75 1.22 1.58
Primary Bets
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