Metz vs Saint Etienne Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Metz
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-0)
Saint Etienne
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Stade Saint-Symphorien

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Metz opened at -0.25 against Saint Etienne in the Ligue 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.11
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.36 / 1.24
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Metz -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.14
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.14 AH points more toward Saint Etienne than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Metz -0.25
@ 3.16
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.14
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.19
Price Advantage
+44.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:36
Opening
-0.25
17:26
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.51 / 1.88 -0.25 3.10 / 1.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.12 / 1.74 -0.25 3.14 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.90 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.56 / 1.88 -0.25 3.16 / 1.62 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.85 / 1.50 -0.25 3.15 / 1.72 — -0.50
BetVictor -0.25 2.75 / 1.76 -0.25 2.75 / 1.68 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.00 3.28
-1.25 7.49 2.92
-1.00 6.95 2.56
-0.75 4.55 2.09
-0.25 3.16 1.62
0 2.70 1.42
+0.25 2.09 1.32
+0.75 1.60 1.13
+1.00 1.40 1.04
+1.25 1.31 1.03
+1.50 1.25 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 7.00 3.10
-1.00 6.80 2.68
-0.75 4.50 2.20
-0.50 3.55 1.98
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.82 1.27
+0.75 1.65 1.19
+1.00 1.45 1.10
+1.25 1.35 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.75 1.68
0 2.51 1.45
+0.25 2.01 1.38

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.40 1.95
-0.25 3.15 1.72
+0.25 2.18 1.38
+0.50 1.88 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 8.00 3.28
-1.25 7.50 2.92
-1.00 6.95 2.56
-0.75 4.55 2.09
-0.25 3.10 1.62
0 2.70 1.42
+0.25 2.09 1.29
+0.75 1.60 1.13
+1.00 1.40 1.04
+1.25 1.31 1.03
+1.50 1.25 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.11 2.33
-0.50 3.58 2.02
-0.25 3.14 1.75
0 2.70 1.49
+0.25 2.14 1.38
+0.50 1.85 1.31
+0.75 1.64 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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