Excelsior vs Groningen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Excelsior
Oct 11, 2026 - 14:45
1.69 1.59
Groningen
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Excelsior opened at 0 against Groningen in the Eredivisie. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Excelsior 0
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Excelsior than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Excelsior 0
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+2.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.85 0 1.88 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.95 / 1.90 0 1.95 / 1.90 — 0
Bet365 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 1.90 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.94 / 1.90 0 1.94 / 1.90 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.70 / 1.67 +0.25 1.70 / 1.67 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.84 / 1.83 0 1.84 / 1.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.09
xG 1.69 / 1.59 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.95
Excelsior @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.90
Excelsior @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.95 vs 1.90
Market price is 2.6% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 8.50
-2.00 8.10 7.90
-1.75 5.65 5.50
-1.50 4.50 4.40
-1.25 4.10 4.00
-1.00 3.74 3.58
-0.75 2.84 2.79
-0.25 2.23 2.09
0 1.94 1.90
+0.25 1.62 1.68
+0.75 1.34 1.33
+1.00 1.21 1.19
+1.25 1.17 1.16
+1.50 1.14 1.13
+1.75 1.08 1.08
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 6.00
-1.50 4.65 4.65
-1.25 4.25 4.25
-1.00 3.90 3.90
-0.75 3.00 3.00
-0.50 2.42 2.42
-0.25 2.20 2.20
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.65 1.65
+0.50 1.52 1.52
+0.75 1.38 1.38
+1.00 1.24 1.24
+1.25 1.21 1.21
+1.50 1.18 1.18
+1.75 1.12 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.41 2.41
-0.25 2.13 2.12
0 1.84 1.83
+0.25 1.62 1.61
+0.50 1.48 1.48

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.05 3.05
-0.50 2.55 2.52
-0.25 2.25 2.22
+0.25 1.70 1.67
+0.50 1.55 1.55
+0.75 1.40 1.40

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.70 8.50
-2.00 8.10 7.90
-1.75 5.65 5.50
-1.50 4.50 4.40
-1.25 4.10 4.00
-1.00 3.74 3.58
-0.75 2.84 2.79
-0.25 2.12 2.09
0 1.88 1.85
+0.25 1.62 1.60
+0.75 1.34 1.33
+1.00 1.21 1.19
+1.25 1.17 1.16
+1.50 1.14 1.13
+1.75 1.08 1.08
+2.00 1.02 1.02

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.11 4.02
-0.75 3.11 3.03
-0.50 2.60 2.54
-0.25 2.27 2.22
0 1.95 1.90
+0.25 1.68 1.66
+0.50 1.53 1.51
+0.75 1.39 1.37
+1.00 1.25 1.24
Primary Bets
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