Telstar vs ADO Den Haag Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Telstar
Oct 11, 2026 - 12:30
1.70 1.31
ADO Den Haag
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Telstar opened at -0.25 against ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.36
Telstar -0.36

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Telstar -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.11
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.11 AH points more toward Telstar than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
ADO Den Haag +0.25
@ 3.12
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.11
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.12
Price Advantage
+47.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.67 / 2.89 -0.25 1.67 / 2.89 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.74 / 3.12 -0.25 1.74 / 3.12 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.89 -0.25 1.76 / 2.89 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 -0.25 1.78 / 3.00 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.36
xG 1.70 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.74
Telstar @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.89
Telstar @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.74 vs 1.89
Market price is 7.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 7.10
-1.25 2.97 6.60
-1.00 2.62 6.15
-0.75 2.16 4.19
-0.25 1.76 2.89
0 1.50 2.65
+0.25 1.33 2.12
+0.75 1.15 1.56
+1.00 1.06 1.38
+1.25 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 6.60
-1.25 3.10 6.25
-1.00 2.75 5.75
-0.75 2.25 3.90
-0.50 2.00 3.30
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.32 1.80
+0.75 1.24 1.62
+1.00 1.14 1.42
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.11 1.30

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 3.00
+0.25 1.42 2.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.28 7.10
-1.25 2.97 6.60
-1.00 2.62 6.15
-0.75 2.16 4.20
-0.25 1.67 2.89
0 1.46 2.57
+0.25 1.33 2.01
+0.75 1.16 1.56
+1.00 1.06 1.38
+1.25 1.05 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.25

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.99 3.55
-0.25 1.74 3.12
0 1.48 2.70
+0.25 1.37 2.14
+0.50 1.30 1.86
Primary Bets
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