Telstar vs Sparta Rotterdam Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Telstar
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Sparta Rotterdam
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium BUKO Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Telstar opened at 0 against Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Telstar from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 8 valid books, with 62% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.21
Telstar -0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.58 / 1.35
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Telstar -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 9 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Sparta Rotterdam than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sparta Rotterdam +0.25
@ 2.75
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+41.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 8 valid books · 62% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
0
17:43
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.67 / 2.15 0 1.67 / 2.15 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.67 / 2.13 -0.25 1.77 / 2.64 — -0.25
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.13 / 1.20 +1.50 1.13 / 1.20 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.52 / 1.87 -0.25 1.95 / 2.72 — -0.50
Bet365 0 1.65 / 2.20 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.71 / 2.19 -0.25 1.85 / 2.64 — -0.25
Betano +0.25 1.57 / 1.83 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — -0.50
Superbet -0.50 2.17 / 2.75 -0.50 2.17 / 2.75 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.63 / 2.10 -0.25 1.76 / 2.66 — -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.67 2.15

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 6.55 9.80
-1.75 4.54 8.30
-1.50 3.58 6.20
-1.25 3.20 5.75
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.29 3.66
-0.25 1.85 2.64
0 1.60 2.40
+0.25 1.40 1.99
+0.75 1.20 1.51
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.25 1.07 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.21
+1.75 1.02 1.13

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.55 6.40
-1.25 3.30 6.00
-1.00 2.85 5.75
-0.75 2.35 3.90
-0.50 2.05 3.30
-0.25 1.90 2.75
0 1.55 2.38
+0.25 1.42 1.90
+0.50 1.32 1.75
+0.75 1.24 1.58
+1.00 1.14 1.40
+1.25 1.12 1.32
+1.50 1.12 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.66
0 1.53 2.30
+0.25 1.40 1.92

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.57 3.45
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.93 2.65
+0.25 1.52 1.91
+0.50 1.42 1.72
+0.75 1.33 1.53

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.00 10.50
-1.50 4.00 5.50
+1.50 1.13 1.20
+2.50 1.03 1.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.55 8.30
-1.50 3.58 6.20
-1.25 3.20 5.75
-1.00 2.88 5.30
-0.75 2.32 3.68
-0.25 1.77 2.64
0 1.56 2.34
+0.25 1.40 1.90
+0.75 1.21 1.50
+1.00 1.09 1.32
+1.25 1.07 1.26
+1.50 1.06 1.21
+1.75 1.02 1.13

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.61 3.82
-0.50 2.23 3.09
-0.25 1.95 2.72
0 1.67 2.33
+0.25 1.51 1.95
+0.50 1.40 1.72
+0.75 1.29 1.54

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 5.30
-0.50 2.17 2.75
+0.50 1.40 1.62
+1.50 1.12 1.22
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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