Jong Utrecht vs Roda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jong Utrecht
Oct 19, 2026 - 18:00
1.42 1.65
Roda
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jong Utrecht opened at -0.25 against Roda in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Jong Utrecht +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Jong Utrecht -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.46
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.46 AH points more toward Roda than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jong Utrecht -0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.46
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.66
Price Advantage
+16.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.90 / 1.62 -0.25 2.90 / 1.62 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 -0.25 3.10 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.96 / 1.62 -0.25 2.96 / 1.62 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
xG 1.42 / 1.65 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.90
Jong Utrecht @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.66
Jong Utrecht @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.90 vs 2.66
Market price is 9.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 3.92
-1.50 6.85 3.14
-1.25 6.49 2.83
-1.00 6.05 2.49
-0.75 4.15 2.07
-0.25 2.96 1.62
0 2.64 1.43
+0.25 2.07 1.35
+0.75 1.61 1.16
+1.00 1.42 1.06
+1.25 1.33 1.05
+1.50 1.27 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.30
-1.25 7.00 3.00
-1.00 6.60 2.60
-0.75 4.40 2.15
-0.50 3.45 1.92
-0.25 3.10 1.68
0 2.68 1.45
+0.25 2.15 1.35
+0.50 1.88 1.30
+0.75 1.68 1.20
+1.00 1.48 1.11
+1.25 1.38 1.10
+1.50 1.32 1.11

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.90 3.92
-1.50 6.85 3.14
-1.25 6.50 2.83
-1.00 6.05 2.49
-0.75 4.15 2.07
-0.25 2.90 1.62
0 2.64 1.43
+0.25 2.07 1.32
+0.75 1.61 1.16
+1.00 1.42 1.06
+1.25 1.33 1.05
+1.50 1.27 1.04
Primary Bets
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