Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jong PSV U21
Oct 19, 2026 - 18:00
2.06 1.28
Dordrecht
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
5 / 5 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jong PSV U21 opened at -0.25 against Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.74
Jong PSV U21 -0.74

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Jong PSV U21 -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.49
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.49 AH points more toward Jong PSV U21 than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jong PSV U21 -0.25
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.49
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.61
Price Advantage
+18.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.49 -0.25 1.77 / 2.49 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.50 -0.25 1.90 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.81 / 2.49 -0.25 1.81 / 2.49 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.82 / 2.47 -0.25 1.82 / 2.47 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.74
xG 2.06 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.90
Jong PSV U21 @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.61
Jong PSV U21 @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.90 vs 1.61
Market price is 18.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 5.85 9.90
-1.75 4.24 7.60
-1.50 3.42 5.45
-1.25 3.08 5.05
-1.00 2.74 4.65
-0.75 2.26 3.34
-0.25 1.81 2.49
0 1.58 2.25
+0.25 1.43 1.91
+0.75 1.24 1.51
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.28
+1.50 1.08 1.23
+1.75 1.04 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.50 7.00
-1.50 3.55 5.50
-1.25 3.30 5.00
-1.00 3.00 4.50
-0.75 2.42 3.45
-0.50 2.10 2.85
-0.25 1.90 2.50
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.50 1.90
+0.50 1.40 1.70
+0.75 1.30 1.52
+1.00 1.19 1.38
+1.25 1.17 1.32
+1.50 1.15 1.27
+1.75 1.10 1.19

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.47
0 1.59 2.16
+0.25 1.46 1.84

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.25 7.10
-1.50 3.42 5.45
-1.25 3.08 5.05
-1.00 2.74 4.65
-0.75 2.26 3.34
-0.25 1.77 2.49
0 1.58 2.25
+0.25 1.43 1.87
+0.75 1.24 1.51
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.28
+1.50 1.08 1.23
+1.75 1.04 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.48 3.58
-0.50 2.15 2.93
-0.25 1.90 2.60
0 1.63 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.90
+0.50 1.39 1.69
+0.75 1.28 1.52
Primary Bets
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