Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jong Ajax
Oct 19, 2026 - 18:00
1.79 1.68
De Graafschap
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jong Ajax opened at 0 against De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.10
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Jong Ajax 0
Model–Market Gap
0.10
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.10 AH points more toward Jong Ajax than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jong Ajax 0
@ 2.08
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.10
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.89
Price Advantage
+10.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.03 / 1.71 0 2.03 / 1.71 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.01 / 1.80 0 2.03 / 1.77 — 0
Bet365 0 2.08 / 1.72 0 2.08 / 1.72 — 0
1xBet 0 2.03 / 1.71 0 2.03 / 1.71 — 0
Betano +0.50 1.65 / 1.50 +0.50 1.65 / 1.50 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.97 / 1.72 0 1.99 / 1.70 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.10
xG 1.79 / 1.68 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.03
Jong Ajax @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.89
Jong Ajax @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.03 vs 1.89
Market price is 7.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 7.90 7.30
-2.00 8.80 6.55
-1.75 6.04 4.69
-1.50 4.70 3.74
-1.25 4.33 3.34
-1.00 3.95 3.05
-0.75 2.97 2.43
-0.25 2.30 1.90
0 2.03 1.71
+0.25 1.74 1.56
+0.75 1.44 1.30
+1.00 1.28 1.17
+1.25 1.24 1.14
+1.50 1.19 1.12
+1.75 1.12 1.06
+2.50 1.03 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.00 4.65
-1.50 4.65 3.70
-1.25 4.25 3.45
-1.00 3.90 3.10
-0.75 3.10 2.50
-0.50 2.60 2.25
-0.25 2.35 2.00
0 2.08 1.72
+0.25 1.80 1.58
+0.50 1.62 1.48
+0.75 1.50 1.35
+1.00 1.35 1.24
+1.25 1.30 1.21
+1.50 1.26 1.18
+1.75 1.18 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.27 1.93
0 1.99 1.70
+0.25 1.74 1.54

Betano Main +0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.55 2.22
+0.50 1.65 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.80 6.55
-1.75 6.05 4.70
-1.50 4.70 3.74
-1.25 4.33 3.34
-1.00 3.95 3.05
-0.75 2.97 2.43
-0.25 2.25 1.90
0 2.03 1.71
+0.25 1.74 1.52
+0.75 1.44 1.30
+1.00 1.28 1.17
+1.25 1.24 1.14
+1.50 1.19 1.12
+1.75 1.12 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.73 3.13
-0.75 3.00 2.58
-0.50 2.55 2.24
-0.25 2.30 2.02
0 2.03 1.77
+0.25 1.80 1.60
+0.50 1.64 1.49
+0.75 1.49 1.37
+1.00 1.34 1.26
Primary Bets
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