VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

VVV Venlo
Oct 16, 2026 - 18:00
1.42 1.50
Jong AZ
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

VVV Venlo opened at -0.25 against Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
VVV Venlo -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Jong AZ than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Jong AZ +0.25
@ 2.51
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.69
Price Advantage
+48.5%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.84 / 2.32 -0.25 1.84 / 2.32 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.93 / 2.51 -0.25 1.93 / 2.51 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.88 / 2.32 -0.25 1.88 / 2.32 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
xG 1.42 / 1.50 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.93
VVV Venlo @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.44
VVV Venlo @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.93 vs 2.44
Market price is 20.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.75 8.90
-2.00 6.10 8.90
-1.75 4.44 6.20
-1.50 3.50 4.85
-1.25 3.20 4.50
-1.00 2.92 4.15
-0.75 2.35 3.08
-0.25 1.88 2.32
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.49 1.83
+0.75 1.28 1.47
+1.00 1.16 1.31
+1.25 1.13 1.26
+1.50 1.11 1.22
+1.75 1.06 1.14

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.75 8.90
-2.00 6.10 8.90
-1.75 4.45 6.20
-1.50 3.50 4.85
-1.25 3.20 4.50
-1.00 2.92 4.15
-0.75 2.35 3.08
-0.25 1.84 2.32
0 1.66 2.10
+0.25 1.49 1.79
+0.75 1.28 1.47
+1.00 1.16 1.31
+1.25 1.13 1.26
+1.50 1.11 1.22
+1.75 1.06 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.50 3.40
-0.50 2.18 2.82
-0.25 1.93 2.51
0 1.67 2.19
+0.25 1.51 1.87
+0.50 1.41 1.67
+0.75 1.30 1.52
Primary Bets
More