Jong AZ vs Den Bosch Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Jong AZ
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Den Bosch
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium AFAS Trainingscomplex

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Jong AZ opened at -0.25 against Den Bosch in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is -0.50. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.55 / 1.63
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Jong AZ -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Den Bosch than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Den Bosch +0.25
@ 3.00
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.71
Price Advantage
+75.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.50
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.50
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:45
Opening
-0.25
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:59
PRE1
-0.50
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.62 / 2.70 -0.25 1.66 / 2.62 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.68 / 2.93 -0.25 1.75 / 2.94 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 2.85 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.50 0
1xBet -0.25 1.62 / 2.70 -0.25 1.66 / 2.62 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 4.33 9.00
-1.50 2.88 5.30
-1.25 2.68 4.95
-1.00 2.43 4.65
-0.75 2.05 3.50
-0.25 1.66 2.62
0 1.47 2.35
+0.25 1.38 1.99
+0.75 1.22 1.63
+1.00 1.12 1.50
+1.25 1.11 1.42
+1.50 1.09 1.32

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.00 6.00
-1.25 2.68 5.75
-1.00 2.42 5.50
-0.75 2.08 4.00
-0.50 1.95 3.30
-0.25 1.68 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.15
+0.50 1.32 1.85
+0.75 1.23 1.72
+1.00 1.15 1.52
+1.25 1.14 1.45
+1.50 1.12 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 4.33 9.00
-1.50 2.88 5.30
-1.25 2.62 4.95
-1.00 2.43 4.65
-0.75 2.05 3.50
-0.25 1.66 2.62
0 1.47 2.35
+0.25 1.38 1.99
+0.75 1.22 1.63
+1.00 1.12 1.50
+1.25 1.11 1.39
+1.50 1.09 1.32

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.99 3.30
-0.25 1.75 2.94
0 1.52 2.58
+0.25 1.41 2.12
+0.50 1.34 1.87
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More