Dordrecht vs Emmen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dordrecht
Final Score
0 – 3
(HT 0-2)
Emmen
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium GN Bouw Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dordrecht opened at 0 against Emmen in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The closing line is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Dordrecht from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.96
Dordrecht +0.96

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.49 / 2.49
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dordrecht -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
1.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 1.21 AH points more toward Emmen than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Emmen +0.25
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
1.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.32
Price Advantage
+47.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → +0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
+0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:45
Opening
0
18:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:52
PRE1
+0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.04 / 1.70 -0.25 2.65 / 1.69 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.10 / 1.72 -0.25 2.88 / 1.78 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.85 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 +0.50 0
1xBet 0 2.04 / 1.70 -0.25 2.71 / 1.69 +0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.37 / 1.95 -0.25 2.37 / 1.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.39 / 1.89 -0.25 2.62 / 1.72 +0.50 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.50 6.05
-2.00 8.50 5.40
-1.75 7.50 3.95
-1.50 5.90 3.20
-1.25 5.50 2.87
-1.00 5.15 2.59
-0.75 3.70 2.14
-0.25 2.71 1.69
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.96 1.41
+0.75 1.57 1.20
+1.00 1.39 1.10
+1.25 1.32 1.08
+1.50 1.26 1.07
+1.75 1.17 1.03
+2.00 1.09 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.00 4.80
-1.50 5.50 3.80
-1.25 5.00 3.45
-1.00 4.50 3.10
-0.75 3.45 2.50
-0.50 2.85 2.20
-0.25 2.50 1.95
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.85 1.50
+0.50 1.65 1.40
+0.75 1.50 1.30
+1.00 1.35 1.19
+1.25 1.30 1.17
+1.50 1.25 1.15
+1.75 1.18 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.62 1.72
0 2.36 1.50
+0.25 1.96 1.41

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.37 1.95
+0.25 1.82 1.57

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 6.05
-2.00 9.30 5.40
-1.75 7.50 3.95
-1.50 5.90 3.20
-1.25 5.50 2.88
-1.00 5.15 2.59
-0.75 3.70 2.14
-0.25 2.65 1.69
0 2.41 1.51
+0.25 1.96 1.38
+0.75 1.57 1.20
+1.00 1.39 1.10
+1.25 1.32 1.08
+1.50 1.26 1.07
+1.75 1.17 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.45 2.30
-0.50 3.24 2.03
-0.25 2.88 1.78
0 2.52 1.54
+0.25 2.08 1.42
+0.50 1.83 1.35
+0.75 1.65 1.32
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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