Almere City FC vs FC Volendam Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Almere City FC
Oct 03, 2026 - 18:00
1.60 1.78
FC Volendam
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Almere City FC opened at -0.25 against FC Volendam in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.17
Almere City FC +0.17

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Almere City FC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward FC Volendam than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
FC Volendam +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.65
Price Advantage
+87.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.68 / 2.69 -0.25 1.67 / 2.72 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.75 / 2.86 -0.25 1.71 / 2.92 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.71 / 2.69 -0.25 1.71 / 2.72 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.17
xG 1.60 / 1.78 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.71
Almere City FC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.54
Almere City FC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.71 vs 2.54
Market price is 32.7% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 4.90 10.00
-1.75 3.72 7.95
-1.50 3.05 5.75
-1.25 2.78 5.40
-1.00 2.49 5.05
-0.75 2.10 3.70
-0.25 1.71 2.72
0 1.49 2.46
+0.25 1.36 2.03
+0.75 1.20 1.59
+1.00 1.10 1.42
+1.25 1.09 1.34
+1.50 1.07 1.28
+1.75 1.04 1.20

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 6.60
-1.25 2.75 6.25
-1.00 2.42 5.90
-0.75 2.10 4.25
-0.50 1.92 3.45
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.88
+0.75 1.21 1.70
+1.00 1.13 1.52
+1.25 1.12 1.42
+1.50 1.11 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.72 7.30
-1.50 3.05 5.75
-1.25 2.78 5.40
-1.00 2.49 5.05
-0.75 2.10 3.70
-0.25 1.67 2.72
0 1.49 2.46
+0.25 1.36 1.99
+0.75 1.20 1.59
+1.00 1.10 1.42
+1.25 1.09 1.34
+1.50 1.07 1.28
+1.75 1.03 1.20

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.94 3.28
-0.25 1.71 2.92
0 1.49 2.57
+0.25 1.39 2.11
+0.50 1.32 1.85
Primary Bets
More